Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 29.278909 31.329050 33.546009 36.138962 39.111476 42.441314 46.495270
2025-11-09 25.724605 28.369184 31.394226 35.166411 39.828476 45.523998 53.218891
2025-11-16 23.471956 26.330933 29.709139 34.087742 39.763551 47.113933 57.822195
2025-11-23 22.499219 25.642152 29.470968 34.623236 41.630660 51.282611 66.591551
2025-11-30 21.472149 24.763010 28.865856 34.550529 42.587447 54.248102 74.212336
2025-12-07 20.490391 23.850269 28.116304 34.167907 43.002728 56.407631 81.014969
2025-12-14 19.218221 22.481156 26.665307 32.678169 41.616050 55.531949 82.173453
2025-12-21 18.667039 22.011058 26.368064 32.763208 42.558578 58.497392 91.393162
2025-12-28 18.278378 21.725959 26.290967 33.139059 43.965239 62.451863 104.095876
2026-01-04 17.559304 20.960984 25.504580 32.402254 43.500680 62.983929 109.263312
2026-01-11 17.341637 20.859192 25.631061 33.033009 45.335955 68.099878 128.291017
2026-01-18 17.077664 20.677544 25.627734 33.454478 46.853199 72.907877 149.827568
2026-01-25 16.543390 20.174526 25.242246 33.426830 47.916953 77.805505 179.741189
2026-02-01 15.792446 19.344003 24.346480 32.534440 47.347118 79.127627 199.659221
2026-02-08 15.104763 18.565820 23.476256 31.599401 46.553108 79.700199 217.973260
2026-02-15 14.835861 18.367917 23.456077 32.066159 48.529551 87.826971 297.616109
2026-02-22 14.460397 17.995771 23.144741 32.002829 49.427964 93.513041 391.035960
2026-03-01 14.051228 17.555341 22.701612 31.668767 49.707217 97.574765 504.707786
2026-03-08 13.447325 16.807576 21.746793 30.364485 47.740292 94.083475 499.138226
2026-03-15 13.192968 16.565417 21.571432 30.439095 48.810252 100.866284 767.758481
2026-03-22 13.010511 16.421133 21.540537 30.768626 50.506121 110.790626 1720.262542
2026-03-29 12.633601 15.972472 21.002566 30.122273 49.838826 111.663535 2604.285680
2026-04-05 12.524903 15.922583 21.102847 30.675684 52.132438 125.920907 NaN